Dienstag, 3. Juli 2012

Mathematical proof- grass is greener on other side

Two envelops' paradox...


The basic setup: You are given two indistinguishable envelopes, each of which contains a positive sum of money. One envelope contains twice as much as the other. You may pick one envelope and keep whatever amount it contains. You pick one envelope at random but before you open it you are offered the possibility to take the other envelope instead.[3]
The switching argument: Now suppose you reason as follows:
  1. I denote by A the amount in my selected envelope.
  2. The probability that A is the smaller amount is 1/2, and that it is the larger amount is also 1/2.
  3. The other envelope may contain either 2A or A/2.
  4. If A is the smaller amount, then the other envelope contains 2A.
  5. If A is the larger amount, then the other envelope contains A/2.
  6. Thus the other envelope contains 2A with probability 1/2 and A/2 with probability 1/2.
  7. So the expected value of the money in the other envelope is

    {1 \over 2} (2A) + {1 \over 2} \left({A \over 2}\right) = {5 \over 4}A
  8. This is greater than A, so I gain on average by swapping. i.e grass is greener...further...
  9. After the switch, I can denote that content by B and reason in exactly the same manner as above.
  10. I will conclude that the most rational thing to do is to swap back again.
  11. To be rational, I will thus end up swapping envelopes indefinitely.
  12. As it seems more rational to open just any envelope than to swap indefinitely, we have a contradiction.

Donnerstag, 28. Juni 2012

MMT

Somehow agree to Modern Monetary Theory... http://pragcap.com/understand-the-modern-monetary-system/understanding-modern-monetary-system

The moot point is clear division of goals between government and central banks...where central banks ought to have a single goal of inflation control, government should work towards increasing economic efficiency, increasing employment etc...hope indian government does understand this.

Samstag, 19. Mai 2012

Chelsea vs Bayern Muenchen 2012


Just saw the match between Chelsea vs Bayern Muenchen, Champions League Final 2012.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l2G6NueO0k8&feature=related

Throughout match Chelsea remained underdog but had the last laugh......guess, that the diversity they had paid handsomely. BM on the other hand are seemed uniform, disciplined and virtuous (seemingly), but the difference they lacked proved decisive.